The escalation of uncertainties in the global scenario continues to impact market behavior and feeding volatility on risk assets. According to XP technical analyst, Gilberto Coelho, Giba, the dollar came back approaching R $ 6 and has technical evidence of trend reversal, in the short term, from low to high.
“Today, the trading system is pointing to a long -term purchase. The region of the $ 5.70 has become support, and Fibonacci’s projection has already targeted the $ 6.17,” he said, during a special Live do Infomoneyabout the current market moment and investment opportunities, with mediation by Mariana Amaro and participation of Fernando Perse, chief economist at XP Asset.
For him, the current scenario of crisis and uncertainty contributes to this appreciation of the American currency. “The investor needs to operate with Stop. The signs are clear: Disney is getting further and further,” he joked, in reference to the discharge of the dollar that can thwart international travel.
International scholarships
In the field of international indices, the warning is also of caution. NASDAQ has lost the support of 19,100 points, which can make room for new tests at lower levels. “It’s not yet a trend reversal scenario, it’s just a repique. The most important brackets are in 17,000 and 14,000 points,” he said.
Already the S&P 500, according to Giba, will only point back to the trend of discharge if exceeding 5 thousand points. Despite the warning tone, the analyst stressed that moments such as the current one are also learning opportunities – especially for beginner investors.
“Storms form great sailors. It’s a moment of learning, yes, but also of opportunities. We never know exactly how far prices will fall, but there is already a chance to enter the American bag.”
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Based on graphic analysis and perspective in Fibonacci’s theory, Giba sees space for strategies of ‘Long and short‘, which consists of buying assets that have fallen a lot and sell those who fell little. The main recommendation, however, is diversification.
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“The investor needs to be prepared. The ideal is to keep part of the portfolio in fixed lace and make selective allocation in the bag. Thus, you can sail better in this busy sea,” he concluded.
Technical analysis
During the conversation, Giba highlighted the importance of moving averages in technical analysis. According to him, Ibovespa has been operating below the 21 -day moving average, which, in his view, represents a warning sign.
“I, in particular, don’t like to operate assets that are below this average. It’s a time of caution, ideal for those who want to reduce exposure and sell ETFs as a form of protection,” he said.
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Coelho also pointed out that although the moment is challenging, he also offers opportunities for those who have a risk appetite.
“Yes, there is a small window to buy American scholarship. But it is right to diversify: keep part of fixed -income capital and make timely allocations in stocks so as not to suffer so much from volatility.”
Despite the cautious tone, the XP expert comments that the moment requires more strategy than panic.
“We hope that an agreement will be signed between the powers, but while this does not happen, protection and risk management are essential for Brazilian investors,” Giba concluded.