Despite the high interest atmosphere, the mall’s real estate funds have shown resilience and follow as one of the most attractive classes in the sector. According to analysts, even with a negative correlation between Selic and the funds quotas – where the increase in the rate tends to press down prices – consolidated and well located assets have been valued with the advance of sales and rent adjustments above inflation.
“We saw surprising results in the early months of 2025, above expectations, even in the midst of contractionist monetary policy,” says Larissa Nappo and Fausto Menezes, analysts from Itaú BBA.
They remember that the malls are hybrids by nature: in addition to real estate, they are directly linked to retail and the level of economic activity.
With the high CDI, paper has benefited and delivered larger monthly income, which ends up diverting part of the flow of brick funds investors. Still, the dividends of the malls remain consistent, especially in the most qualified assets.
“The difference is the time to transfer inflation. While paper funds fit quickly, malls need to wait for contractual adjustments with retailers,” explain BBA analysts.
For Arton Advisors, this disregard opens opportunities: “The drop in quotes, caused by the interest cycle, does not always reflect the revenue of the enterprises – which may represent good shopping windows for long -term investors,” says Sylvio Martins, alternative product analyst at the House of Investments.
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In this scenario, malls focused on classes A and B should continue with superior performance. “High -standard developments have a more resilient demand and higher price transfer capacity,” says Leonardo Garcia, an analyst at Trix.
“Despite the challenging macroeconomic scenario, mall portfolios – especially high standards – recorded sales growth almost 4% above inflation, as well as high -inflational rent adjustments (SSR). The so -called ‘trophy’ active actives have a less -tied dynamics and dominate densely populated regions, which makes them resilient investments,” adds Martins.
| Index | 2025 | 12 months |
| Itrix Shopping | 8.54% | – 6.20% |
| Ibovespa | 8.29% | 1.68% |
| Itrix paper | 6.82% | 0.80% |
| Itrix Offices | 6.58% | -10.66% |
| IFix | 6.32% | 7.49% |
| Stupid | 6.19% | 7.49% |
| Itrix brick | 5.93% | – 6.01% |
| Itrix sheds | 5.76% | – 3.00% |
| CDI | 3.03% | 11.26% |
In turn, Garcia mentions that, even with a negative performance of -6.2% in the last 12 months, the segment still delivers dividend yield of about 12% and negotiates with an average discount of 20% (P/VP of 0.8x), which is attractive to the history.
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According to experts, postcovid recovery has already been consolidated, and the main factor that should influence the asset appreciation from now on is the trajectory of the interest curve. “If there is a turn in the economic cycle, funds may present good equity results, reinforced by retrofits, expansions and strategic acquisitions,” says Itaú’s team.
During the pandemic, the uncertainty about the closure of the establishments generated a significant impact, bringing the index to 0.82 to VP.
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Analysts still point out a new trend in the sector: mall operators seek to become partner of the FIIs, even in premium assets. “This has generated a new flow of transactions and reinforced the potential for appreciation of funds that have been qualifying their portfolios,” says Nappo.
An example is XP Malls (XPML11), which participates in the development of Shops Faria Lima, a JHSF venture in one of the most valued regions of São Paulo. “The fund is positioned as a reference in the sector, with billionaire fundraising, entry into relevant assets and partnership with groups such as Multiplan and Iguatemi,” says BBA.
Read more: FIIs raise dividends by up to 22% in April; See higher highs – and falls – of the month
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The dynamics of malls also changed. Today, in addition to purchases, enterprises offer gyms, coworkings, exhibitions and services, increasing the flow of visitors and revenue.
Among the funds that stand out, analysts also cite the HGBS11 (Hedge Brasil Shopping), for the exhibition to consolidated premium malls, and CPSH11 (Capitânia Shopping), with good management and solid indicators.
“Shopping malls have been reinvented and are still key pieces in the income of the FIIs. In a cycle of falling interest rates, they should attract the interest of the investor seeking income and appreciation,” concludes Garcia.