The Brazilian B3 (B3SA3) carrier released on Monday (14) its operational numbers of March 2025, still impacted by domestic and international macro uncertainties, in the evaluation of XP Investimentos. At 10:49 am, the company’s action rose 0.66%, to R $ 12.25.
In the quarter, the average negotiated financial volume (ADTV) of shares and derivatives were 5% and 13% below XP estimates, respectively. As a result, the broker considers the quarter slightly below her expectations.
For the year 2025, XP reiterated a cautious perspective, as the current monetary tightening cycle should remain the main obstacle to the resumption of a stronger activity in the capital market.
On the fixed income side, however, XP points out that the positive momentum remains, with new emissions totaling R $ 4,770 trillion in 1T25. The counter derivatives also improved, reaching R $ 3.982 trillion.
In short, despite the improvements presented by the company in recent quarters, XP predicts that Momentum for B3 shares remains pressed as the interest rate raising cycle can negatively affect the future money and appetite of investors. Thus, the financial institution maintained its conservative vision for B3, with a neutral recommendation and target price of 14.
JPMorgan, in turn, points out that the volumes were 2% below their estimates. The composition can help-there was a slight drop in co-location volume (server hosting and hardware service in a data center, which allows the interconnection with the stock market negotiation platform) to 46.0% against 46.4% in 4T24 and the exercise of options to $ 4.6 billion compared to $ 5.2 billion, which can offer a small relief in the stock rate margins.
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Goldman Sachs points out that March operational data showed an ADTV in modestly lower actions of R $ 25.1 billion. However, the bank points out that April ADTV is significantly higher at R $ 27.6 billion. Revenues with actions and derivatives (excluding actions) also fell in March.
On the other hand, according to Goldman Sachs, volumes in custody and records improved, while the financing unit performed weaker performance in the month.
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Still, Goldman projects that revenues improve sequentially on 1T25 and expenses fall after seasonal pressure on 4T24. As a result, the bank estimates that the EBITDA margin (EBITDA = profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization/net revenue) rise to 68.7%, compared to 66.6% in 4T24 – but below 71.5% recorded in 1T24.
JPMorgan has maintained a neutral and target price recommendation of 14, while Goldman Sachs reiterated purchase recommendation and raised target price from $ 12 to $ 13.