The intensification of the tariff war among the largest economies in the world has generated a risk aversion environment, with direct reflexes in global markets, especially in the currency market.
The advance of commercial barriers between the United States and China rekindles fears of global economic slowdown and increases the perception of risk among institutional investors. A possible recessive scenario is already discussed if the trade conflict extends or climbs to strategic sectors.
In this context of macroeconomic uncertainty and risk asset escape, the dollar operates with high volatility, reacting to both geopolitical developments and technical factors.
The DXY index, which measures the performance of the American currency against a basket of strong borders, and the future dollar negotiated on B3 (Dolfut) are two of the most sensitive instruments to this scenario. Both are in decisive technical zones, with possibilities for reversal or continuity of trend depending on market behavior in the coming days.
To understand the possible movements of DXY and the future dollar, check out the detailed technical analysis and the main levels of support and resistance.
DXY Technical Analysis
The DXY index maintains its short -term trajectory, pressured by technical and macroeconomic factors.
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In the daily chart, DXY continues to respect a low trend line (LTB) and continues to form descendant tops and funds – a classic pattern of weakening.
In the last two trading sessions, the index recorded expressive falls. On Friday (11), when playing a relevant support zone in 99,250 pointsthere was a buyer reaction. The presence of lower shadow in the candle Of the day indicates that buyers try to defend this price range, which can bring some accommodation in the short term.
Despite the attempted stabilization, the technical bias of the index remains bassist. Case consistently lose the range of 99,250 pointsDXY tends to look for inferior support levels, such as regions of 97,200, 95.140 and even 92,900 pointswhich correspond to previous funds defended by buyers in past cycles.
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On the other hand, if there is reaction and buyers are able to support a recovery, the index may seek resistance 101,870 points and then in the range between 103,500 and 104,730 points.
This last region, in addition to marking an old top, also represents a crucial technical point. The consistent break of this level could make room for a reversal of the short -term trend.
Medium term analysis
In the weekly chart, the DXY has followed within a consolidation movement that has extended since February 2023. In this second week of April, the index again test a region of extreme technical relevance, characterized by the principle of bipolarity, where old resistances are now supported.
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The loss of the region of 99,700 points in the weekly it would be a negative sign and can lead the index to seek lower levels, as 94,550, 91,900 and, in a more marked scenario of weakness, until the 89,200 points.
On the other hand, if the current support is respected and recovery, the dxy may again test the previous tops in 104,900, 107,000 and 110.150 Points, areas that have defined important limits of the recent side movement and can return to acting as barriers to continuity of discharge.
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Technical Analysis of the Future Dollar (Dolfut)
The Future Dollar Contract (Dolfut) points to a possible resumption of the high trend after breaking a significant low trend line (LTB) in the 120 -minute chart. This rupture suggests, at least temporarily, the closing of the low cycle observed in recent weeks.
After breaking LTB, the dollar advanced to the region of 6,105 pointswhere it faced seller pressure. Since then, he retreated and has returned to test the former LTB, which now acts as a technical support.
While the asset remains above the broken LTB, the scenario remains favorable for buyers. Overcoming resistance in 6,105 points can make room for the dollar to reach higher levels, such as 6,305 pointsand if the movement gains strength, the 6,497 pointsa region that coincides with previous tops.
On the other hand, a possible fault in the resumption and a return below the broken LTB can replace the asset within the previous low channel. If this happens and the support in the region of 5,800 points be lost, the market can seek a critical support level, located between the 5,617 and 5,885 points.
Medium term analysis
In the daily chart, the future dollar keeps its main trend in discharge. Recently, the asset tested the high trend line (LTA) in the region of 5,620 pointswhere there was a significant reaction from buyers. This movement boosted the dollar again for resistance in 6,105 points.
The bias remains positive, and for the high structure to be maintained, it is crucial that the contract remains above 5,800 points. This support can make way for new highs, with technical targets in 6.105followed by 6.305and if the movement gains strength, in 6,497 points.
On the other hand, a more intense increase in salesman pressure and the loss of the region of 5,800 points could put the asset at technical risk. In this scenario, the market would aim to target the range between 5,620 and 5,572 pointsconsidered crucial for maintaining the high trend. The loss of this support, in turn, can signal the beginning of a trend reversal, with the next level of attention focused on 5,308 points.
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Check out more content about technical analysis at IM Trader. Daily, Infomoney publishes what to expect from the dollar and index mini -points.