SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Electricity rates in Brazil should increase an average of 3.5% by 2025, below inflation projected for the year, but additional charges through the tariff flag system should still affect the electricity bill and can reach consumers as early as May.
The National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) released on Monday a projection of a 3.5% increase in energy tariffs this year, below estimates of 5.6% for the IPCA index and 5.1% for the IGP-M.
By regulatory agency calculations, the high tariff in 2025 mainly reflects increases of 2% of the so -called “installment B”, which encompasses the costs of energy distribution activity, and 1.6% of sectoral charges, especially the Energy Development Account (CDE), which brings together the main subsidies of the electricity sector.
Contributing to soften the discharge, there is a 2.7% drop in financial components of the fare, pulled for example by the return to more consumers charged to the energy bill before the exclusion of ICMS from the PIS/COFINS calculation base.
However, extra charges on the electricity bill should begin to be seen in May, probably with the yellow flag according to analyst projections, due to the most unfavorable scenario for power generation in the country.
In addition to entry into the dry period, which affects hydroelectric power, still the main source of the Brazilian matrix, generation costs have been affected by a more averse risk pricing model.
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This makes the price in the short term market increase, even though hydroelectric reservoirs are close to 70%at levels considered comfortable in the past.
Scenarios of the Electricity Commercialization Chamber (CCEE) indicate a higher likelihood of yellow flag in the electricity bill next month, adding to the electricity bill R $ 1.88 per 100 kilowatt hours consumed, after five months with the triggering of green, without extra charge.
Broker Warren Rena also foresees yellow flag in May, followed by a sequence of red flags level 1 and red 2 between June and October. The institution’s forecast is green flag in December, so that there would be no impact on the IPCA of the year, estimated at 5.5%.
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Currently, it is charged the more of consumers $ 4.46/100 kWh in the red flag 1 and $ 7.87/100kWh in red 2.
AMPERE Consultoria, which provides solutions for the energy and agribusiness sectors, currently projects yellow flag in May and red flags until November, ending the year with yellow flag again. AMPERE forecasts will be updated this week.
Extra collection on the electricity bill via flags was created to pass more immediately to consumers increases in power generation costs. The mechanism also serves to make consumers aware of the country’s electrical generation situation and eventual need for energy saving.
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In addition to the spot price, called PLD, other factors enter the calculation of tariff flags, such as hydrological risk (GSF), which exposes hydroelectric generators to the short -term energy market.
In 2024, the tariff flag was green to consumers until July, when it was triggered yellow. The additional charge returned in September and followed until November, with the year ending with the green flag in December.