Ibovespa ended the week, reaching 127,682 points, driven by signs of relief in commercial tensions between the United States and China. Despite the increase in Chinese tariffs to 125% on US products, Beijing signaled that this would be the last adjustment, since the US no further raises its rates. President Donald Trump also expressed optimism regarding a possible deal with China, which contributed to the positive performance of the index, which accumulated a weekly gain of 0.34%.
Analysts point out that despite recent market relief, volatility remains high due to uncertainties in global business negotiations. In addition, statements by the president of the Federal Reserve of Boston, Susan Collins, about the willingness of the US Central Bank to adopt accommodation measures if volatility persists, also contributed to market optimism. In the United States, S&P 500 registered a 1.8%increase, driven by the start of the balance season and expectations around monetary policies.
Technical Analysis of Ibovespa
In the medium term, the weekly chart indicates a lateralization scenario. The support zone remains solid in the region between 118,685 and 118,222 points, while the most significant resistance is located between 133,900 and 137,470 points – the latter being the historical top of the index.
Last week, the weekly candle had a long lower shadow, indicating buying strength and intraordinary recovery. If the index exceeds 128,650 points with volume input, the high movement can gain strength, aiming at the maximum of 2025. From that point, the next technical objective will be the historical top.
On the other hand, if the index misses moving averages and support in the range between 125,270 and 122,530 points, the bias can return to the low. A breach of this region would make room for larger corrections, with targets at 118,222 points (minimum of the year), 117,577 points (average 200 periods) and, in a higher seller -pressure scenario, to the 113,000 points. IFR (14) is 51.73, indicating that the market remains in a neutral zone.
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Short -term analysis
In the short term, the daily chart indicates that Ibovespa is rehearsing a reaction after the strong drop from the top 2025, located at 133,900 points. The main rise of the week took place on Wednesday (9), with a 3.12%advance, reinforcing the recovery bias-although so far interpreted as a technical correction.
For the recovery movement to gain traction, it will be crucial that Ibovespa breaks the resistance range between 128.170 and 128,650 points, in addition to the 200 periods. Above this level, the next technical obstacle will be an average of 21 periods, located at 130,065 points. Overcoming this stage, the index can seek the maximum of the year, in 133,900 points, with targets extended at 135,880 points and, later, at the historical top.
On the other hand, if the Ibovespa cannot break the mentioned resistances and lose the minimum of the last session, located at 126,080 points, this will signal buying weakness. In this scenario, the index may resume the low movement, with targets at 123,875, 122,530 and 121,160 points. A break below 118,222 points may intensify the seller flow. IFR (14) on the daily chart is 48.23, indicating that the market remains in a neutral zone.
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Ibovespa supports and resistances
Supports:
Short and medium term
- 126,080 – Minimum of the last session (short term).
- 123,875 – Intermediate support.
- 122,530 – Important support zone (repeated in two graphic times).
- 121,160 – Additional support in the short term.
Medium term / long term
- 118,685 / 118,222 – Minimum range of 2025 and most relevant support of the year.
- 117,577 – 200 periods (weekly).
- 113,000 – longer target if the 118,222 points support is lost.
Resistances:
Short term
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- 128.170 / 128.650 – Immediate resistance range (diary).
- 130.065 – Average of 21 periods (short term).
Average
- 133,900 – maximum of 2025.
- 135,880 – Intermediate target.
- 137,469 / 137,470 – Historical maxim of Ibovespa (August 2024).
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