Investors follow relevant data in Brazil and the United States on Monday (7). At 8:25 am, the Central Bank discloses the Focus Bulletin, with market projections for inflation, interest, exchange and growth. In the US, the March employment trend index will be published at 11am, and February consumer credit data leaves at 16h (Brasília time). These numbers should influence the next steps of the market, which already reacts to the developments of the trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
On Friday (4), the dollar fired, registering the highest daily percentage since the beginning of the third term of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The US currency rose 3.72% and ended the rated day at R $ 5,8382, accumulating a 21 cents advance in only one session. The appreciation was attributed to the reaction of the foreign market to Chinese retaliation to the tariffs imposed by the United States, which increased concerns about the global economy.
Ibovespa followed the negative movement of international markets and fell 2.96%at 127,256 points, the worst daily drop since December 18 last year. Only three actions ended the day on the rise. The Brazilian scholarship oscillated between 131,139 and 126,465 points, with a negotiated financial volume of R $ 31.8 billion. Risk aversion gained strength after China announced 34% tariffs on US products and rare land export controls, which raised commercial tensions.
Agenda
On Monday, President Lula is scheduled in Montes Claros (MG) in the morning, where, at 10:20 am, participates in a visit and expansion announcement ceremony of the new Nordisk factory. At 1:30 pm, he embarks to Sao Paulo, scheduled to arrive at 14:45 at Congonhas Airport. At 3:30 pm, he participates in a visit and advertising ceremony of investments and hiring of the Free Market.
Central Bank President Gabriel Galipolo, particpa at 8 am with Joesley Batista, shareholder of J&F Investimentos SA then, at 9am, makes the opening speech of the Annual Rankings Top 5 2024 Annual Awards event promoted by the Central Bank. At 9:30 am, receives Rubens Menin, chairman of the board of Inter, João Vitor Menin, CEO, and Alexandre Riccio, CEO Brazil, to deal with institutional affairs. Finally, at 10:30 am, there is an audience with Banco Safra executives, including José Olympio Pereira, Rafael Werner and Alberto Monteiro de Queiroz.
At 11:30 am in the United States, Federal Reserve Director Adriana Kugler gives speech.
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Brazil
8h25 – Focus Bulletin
USA
11h – Employment Trend Index (March)
16h – Consumer Credit (February)
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Euro zone
6am – retail sales (February)
International
Manifestation against Trump
More than a thousand cities in the US and abroad recorded protests against President Donald Trump on Saturday (5), according to the AFP news agency. The demonstrations, which took place in places like Washington, New York and London, have been the greatest since his return to power. Protests criticized cuts in public services and tariffs affecting workers. The motto “take off your hands” was widely adopted. European capitals also expressed opposition to the republican government. A giant track was extended near the White House in repudiation of the policies. Despite the mobilization, the White House said Trump maintains support from its base.
On the tariffs
Trump classified the current trade war as an “economic revolution” and again criticized China’s retaliation for the tariffs imposed by Washington. In a publication on Truth Social, he said the battle “won’t be easy, but the end result will be historical,” promising, “We will win.” Since Wednesday (2), nicknamed Trump of “Liberation Day”, the US has applied reciprocal tariffs to several partners, including a 34% rate on Chinese products.
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Negotiations
More than 50 countries have sought the White House to start commercial negotiations after the announcement of new US tariffs, according to Kevin Hassett, Trump’s economic advisor. In interviews on Sunday (6), government officials defended the measures, despite the 10% drop in US actions since the adoption of tariffs. Hassett denied that the strategy aims to press the Fed to cut interest, as suggested by a video shared by Trump. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, minimized the risks of recession, citing job growth.
Economy
Meeting
The president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galipolo, met on Saturday (5), in São Paulo, with leaders of the largest private banks in the country. According to the BC, the meeting is part of periodic meetings with the National Financial System to discuss financial stability, and was scheduled to reconcile participants’ agendas. The meeting took place amid the purchase operation of Banco Master by BRB, central theme of the meeting, according to Estadão. Present were the presidents of Itaú, Bradesco, Santander, BTG Pactual, as well as the president of the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC), Daniel Lima. The business between BRB and Banco Master still depends on regulatory endorsement.
Trade balance
The Brazilian trade balance closed March with a surplus of US $ 8.154 billion, the second largest in the historical series for the month. The result was achieved thanks to the beginning of agricultural crops and the increase in exports of meat, coffee and copper ore. Exports totaled US $ 29.177 billion, up 5.5% compared to March 2024. Imports also grew, totaling US $ 21.023 billion. Highlight for the purchase of machines, engines and fertilizers. In the agricultural sector, the shipped volume grew by 10.8%. The extractive industry had a drop in exports due to platform maintenance.
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Income tax
In almost three weeks, the IRS received 8.2 million IRPF 2025 statements, representing 17.75% of the expected total. The deadline runs until May 30th. The pre-filed statement was delayed because of the audit strike, but has already been used by 2.8 million taxpayers. The expectation is to receive 46.2 million documents this year, 7% more than in 2024. They should declare who received taxable income above R $ 33,888 or had rural revenue over R $ 169,440. Those who earned up to two minimum wages are exempt, except for exceptions.
Policy
Assessment
The negative perception of the Brazilian economy has advanced ten percentage points since the end of last year and now reaches 55% of the population, according to Datafolha. It is the first time, in Lula’s third term (PT), that most Brazilians say see worse in the economic scenario.
Leader
Datafolha survey released on Saturday (5) shows the current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) leading all scenarios tested for 2026. Against Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Lula has 36% of voting intentions, against 30%. In dispute with Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Lula appears with 35%, and the governor of São Paulo, with 15%. Against Michelle Bolsonaro, Lula also leads with 35%, compared to 15% of the former first lady. Even with advantage in voting intentions, the rejection of the Lula administration remains high: 38% consider him bad or terrible. Approval is higher in the Northeast and smaller among evangelicals, men and residents of the southern. The research listened to 3,054 people in 172 cities.
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Empty
The demonstration organized by Jair Bolsonaro on Sunday (6), on Paulista Avenue, brought together about 44,800 people, according to USP estimate, marking a major drop from February 2024, which had 185,000. The former president again asked for amnesty to the convicts on January 8. The emptied mobilization intended to draw attention to the forgiveness project that is being processed in the House. In the microphone, Pastor Silas Malafaia attacked Minister Alexandre de Moraes, calling him “coward” and “dictator of the toga.” He criticized the Supreme Court, saying that he became a court of “injustice and politics.” Deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) called Alexandre de Moraes a “coward” and Barroso “mocking”, and accused the STF of using January 8 to “frightened” the opposition.
Bolsonaro
The governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), said on Sunday (6), that amnesty is an urgent agenda because it is necessary to “pacify the country”. According to former government minister of former President Jair Bolsonaro, it is necessary to “discuss what matters.” In this area, Tarcisio cited inflation and food price to stroke his political godfather: “If it’s all expensive, Bolsonaro comes back.”
Against release
GENIAL Survey/Quaest released on Sunday (6) shows that 56% of Brazilians are against the release of those convicted of the acts of January 8. Only 34% defend the amnesty, 18% because they think the defendants should never have been arrested. Among Lula voters, 77% are against forgiveness; Among Bolsonaro, 61% are in favor, but 32% also reject the measure. The survey listened to 2,004 people between March 27 and 31. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.
Security PEC
Justice Minister Ricardo Lewandowski meets on Tuesday (8) with House leaders to discuss the PEC of Public Security. The meeting, articulated by Gleisi Hoffmann, will be at the mayor’s house, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), and will be attended by opponents such as Paulo Bilynskyj (PL-SP). The proposal, considered Lewandowski’s priority, faces resistance in Congress, including between petistas, who see little practical effect on the perception of security. After criticism, the text was modified to ensure governors’ autonomy and include the role of municipal guards. The proposal must be sent later this month.
Flexible
ABIN servers gave the Civil House a bill to update the legislation governing the intelligence agency, seeking to give legal support to its confidential operations. The draft proposes to explicitly authorize the use of techniques such as surveillance, target monitoring and intrusive technological tools – practices already adopted, but without clear regulation. It also proposes to transfer from the GSI to the director general of Abin the power to share data and ensure confidentiality about the identity of agents. The initiative comes after a denunciation of espionage involving Paraguay, and the Civil House evaluates that it is not yet the ideal political time to move with the project.
Judiciary
The Supreme Court formed a majority to exclude its own revenues from the federal judiciary from the new tax framework limit. The decision meets the action of the Association of Brazilian Magistrates (AMB). The rapporteur, Alexandre de Moraes, argued that the measure preserves the autonomy of powers. Most ministers accompanied the vote. The tax rule remains valid for resources passed on by the Union. AGU and PGR diverged about exclusion. The new framework limits the growth of expenses based on collection.
First lady
The Attorney General of the Union (AGU) published a opinion that guides the performance of the spouses of presidents of the Republic, after criticism of the spending of the first lady Janja. The text recognizes that the performance must be voluntary, without remuneration, with transparency in travel and use of public resources. AGU recommends disclosure of agenda and expenses on the Transparency Portal. The measure comes after spending revelations, such as R $ 203,600 in Paris and R $ 34.1 thousand in passages to Rome, as well as discussions about the non-official but active role, from the first lady in the Lula administration.
Proposal
Brazil will propose to the community of Latin American and Caribbean states (Celac) a unique candidacy from Latin America and the Caribbean for the position of Secretary General of the United Nations (UN), which will be vacant in 2026 with the end of António Guterres’ term. The idea is to reinforce regional turnover, as the last Latin American in office was Javier Pérez de Cuéllar in the 1980s. Itamaraty also intends to suggest a female name, especially Mia Mottley and Michelle Bachelet. The proposal will be discussed at the next Celac meeting in Honduras. The choice of the UN head goes through the Security Council and should avoid vetoes of the great powers.
(With Reuters, Agência Brasil and Estadão)