Foreign investors show a growing interest in the Brazilian market, but without the hurry of making great allocations in the country. This was the perception of Raphael Figueredo, XP’s variable income strategist, after a recent trip to the United States, where he met with large international funds. The analyst, known as Rafi, shared his impressions on the Stock Pickers program, presented by Lucas Collazo and Henrique Esteter.
“What I heard a lot is: ‘I want to buy Brazil again, I’m looking, I find the level of valuationthe foundation of companies, return level, dividend and the quality of management ‘. There is a great interest, but without urgency, ”said Figueredo.
According to him, in late 2024, many investors reduced their exposure to Brazil amid volatility and the scenario of uncertainty. “Many active funds had an exhibition above the benchmark In Brazil, because they expected a more significant drop in interest, which did not happen in the expected form. This led to a sales movement, ”he explained.
Global scenario
Despite the renewed interest in Brazil, the numbers of foreign capital flow show that the movement is still shy. “The recent entry flow was about $ 10 billion, which is equivalent to less than $ 2 billion. It is not a significant volume for the global market, but enough to impact a bag that is relatively cheap,” Rafi said.
He also mentioned that the rotation of investments to emerging markets has favored Brazil, but that there are still no clear signs that this is related to the presidential elections of 2026. “We analyzed the flow data of global ETs and saw that, in 2025, the entry of resources in Brazil occurred mainly through EMF EMS. Withdrawal of US $ 300 million this year. This indicates that the country is benefiting more of global rotation than from an early betting on the electoral scenario, ”he explained.
The XP strategist considered that although the theme of Brazilian elections is in the radar of investors, there is not yet a significant flow of capital entering the country for this reason. “The market can enter a ‘election trade’ over the next nine to twelve months, but for now, the money coming here has another origin,” he said.
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Figueredo also commented that, in recent conferences, some investors compared Brazil’s situation with that of Argentina, where hedge funds profited the change of government. “Many foreign investors, especially those with the most aggressive profiles, have made a lot of money from the elections in Argentina. Therefore, this theme is in the minds of many people and raises the possibility that something similar can happen in Brazil,” he said.
The Stock Pickers program, which was also attended by Fernando Ferreira, chief strategist at XP Investimentos, stressed that, despite the renewed interest, Brazil remains a volatility market. “Any flow of foreign capital makes a difference here, given the size of our stock market. But the global scenario and internal decisions will continue to be determinant for the market trajectory in the coming months,” Figueredo concluded.