Global markets are expected to gain a new breath on Thursday, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day break in commercial tariffs to various countries, excluding China. The measure was well received by investors, who interpreted the decision as a sign of relief in international tensions.
In Brazil, the dollar retreated 2.51% and closed quoted at $ 5,8473, after exceeding $ 6 during the week. The American currency fell strongly, ranging from $ 6.06 to $ 5.83 in a few hours, directly influenced by the White House gesture. Ibovespa, which fell until 122,887 points, reversed the trajectory around 2:30 pm and closed the day up 3,864.04 points at 127,795.93, with a 4.69% variation between the minimum and the maximum of the day.
In the United States, the main stock rates also performed strongly. The S&P 500 jumped 9.52%, the third largest daily gain since World War II, according to FactSet. Dow Jones has advanced 7.87%, up 2,962.86 points, the best result since March 2020. Nasdaq led the highs with a 12.16%trigger, recording the second largest daily advance in its history.
Today, Brazilian investors are also eyeing the dissemination of the February service industry growth rate and the global economic barometers of April, both at 9am. In the US, the highlight is the weekly unemployment insurance and CPI (Consumer Price Index) March at 9:30 am, in addition to the Wasde report at 1 pm and the federal budget balance at 3 pm.
Agenda
This Thursday, the president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galipolo, fulfills an agenda in Brasilia with meetings throughout the day. In the morning, he meets the United Arab Emirates Ambassador, Saleh Alsuwadi, and then participates in an audience with executives of DZ Bank AG. Then he meets with the Special Secretary of the Civil House, Bruno Moretti. In the afternoon, it receives representatives of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) and the Brazilian Internet Association (Abranet). All commitments are closed to the press.
At 11:30 am, Central Bank director Ailton de Aquino speaks of BNDES event in Rio de Janeiro.
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At 9am, Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance, participates in the 338th Extraordinary Meeting of the Board of Directors of Itaipu.
Thursday’s agenda also includes speeches from several Federal Reserve leaders: Lorie Logan (Dallas) at 10:30 am, Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City) and Michelle Bowman, who participates in a US Senate audience, both at 11am. In the afternoon, Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) speaks at 1 pm, followed by Patrick Harker (Philadelphia) at 1:30 pm.
Brazil
9am – Global Economic Barometers (April)
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9am – Service Sector Growth Index (February)
USA
9:30 am-Orders by Unemployment Insurance (weekly)
9:30 am – CPI (March)
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13h – Wasde Report
15h – Federal Budget Balance (March)
International
Scared people
After announcing a 90 -day fare break except for China, Trump denied that the title market influenced his decision to reverse the tariff. He said the market is “beautiful,” but people were “scared” too much, and said agreements with China and the European Union are possible. According to him, the American economy is in “transition to something better.” Trump again criticized Apple for making iPhones in China and argued that companies will produce in the US again. He said he could grant tariff exemptions to American companies.
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Consequence
The Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, warned that increasing commercial tensions between US and China could lead to a contraction of up to 80% in bilateral trade. According to her, the negative impacts would not be restricted to both powers, also reaching developing countries. Ngozi said that a global block economy division can reduce world GDP by up to 7% in the long run.
Dialogue
The acting president and Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, said that the Brazilian government will seek to negotiate with the United States the reduction of the new import tariff imposed on Brazil’s products. The American measure includes the country in a round of 10% minimum rates on imports. Alckmin said the US has commercial surplus with Brazil and that the Brazilian average rate on American products is only 2.7%, with eight of the top ten items entering zero fare. For him, the way is the dialogue.
No winners
During the Celac Summit in Honduras, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) defended the union of Latin American and Caribbean countries and criticized, without directing the US directly, the tariffs imposed by Trump. Lula stated that commercial wars have no winners and that arbitrary tariffs destabilize the global economy. For him, the region needs a purposeful performance, focusing on democracy and the fight against climate change. Lula also proposed greater economic integration among the Americas. Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum and Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel reinforced the appeal to the Regional Union. “Only unity can save us,” said Díaz-Canel.
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Economy
Dollar exit
Brazil registered in March a net exit of US $ 8.3 billion, the worst result for the month since 1982, according to the Central Bank. The flow was pressured by the dropout of $ 12.8 billion in the financial canal, which encompasses investments, shipments and loans. Already the commercial channel had an entry of US $ 4.5 billion. In the quarter, the balance was negative at $ 15.8 billion. The dollar escape occurs amid the volatility caused by the US tariffs to Brazilian steel and aluminum. Despite this, the dollar fell 3.51% in March, ending the month quoted at R $ 5,844.
Depreciated real
The real was the third currency that has lost the most value against the dollar since April 2, with a 5.1%drop, according to Austin Rating. The devaluation occurs after the announcement of tariffs between USA and China. Brazil is impacted by its strong commercial relationship with China. In the ranking, 58 coins fell and 32 were valued.
Where do you get away?
Foreign investors will not have to escape if they decide to leave Brazil to avoid the new taxation on dividends provided for in the Income Tax Bill, according to the Federal Revenue Secretary, Robinson Barreirinhas. He evaluates that other countries apply higher taxes, and impacts will be limited. The measure, says Barreirinhas, has been planned based on tax elasticity studies and will only affect a small portion of taxpayers. The bill will be analyzed by a special commission in the House and may be adjusted, such as those suggested by the PP.
High
Judicial decisions already consume almost 9% of the Union’s primary expense, compared to 5% in 2010, according to Insper’s study. In values, spending jumped from R $ 80.3 billion to R $ 279.8 billion in 2023, with the discharged precatory. According to the researchers, the cost is equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. Most expenses are not in the precatory, but in sentences paid directly in the budget, such as social security benefits. The study warns of the loss of tax control and lack of transparency.
Egg export
Brazilian egg exports fired 342.2% in March, with 3,770 tons boarded, according to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA). Revenue rose 383%, reaching US $ 8.65 million. In the first trimester, the exported volume grew 97.2%, totaling 8,654 tons, and the revenue advanced 116.1%to US $ 17.77 million. The United States led purchases, with 2,705 tons, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Chile, Japan and Mexico.
Policy
Possible appointment
Planalto members see in the possible appointment of Pedro Lucas (União-MA) to the Ministry of Communications a way to consolidate the support of União Brasil to the Lula government. The caption, now divided between pockets and the ruling base, occupies three ministries and is considered strategic for congressional voting. Pedro Lucas, from the ruling wing, has good internal transit in the party and made a good impression in Lula during a recent trip. “I already have the name, I know Pedro Lucas. I will go back to Brazil. Tomorrow morning I will talk to União Brasil and, if any, I already discuss his appointment,” said Lula, during official trip Honduras. The appointment can be sacrament after meeting with David Alcolumbre and the Union Summit.
Only the beginning
Justice Minister Ricardo Lewandowski said on Wednesday that the PEC of Public Security is only the beginning of a restructuring of the crime fighting system. At a Senate hearing, he said that the proposal strengthens the Unified Public Security System (SUSP) and promotes cooperation between Union, States and Municipalities, without interfering with state police. The text faces criticism for possible centralization, but Lewandowski denies. The PEC will still be analyzed by the House CCJ. The minister also warned of R $ 500 million in the security budget and requested reinforcement of resources.
PREVI AUDIT
The TCU authorized the opening of audit at PREVI, Banco do Brasil’s pension fund, to investigate possible irregularities and conflicts of interest to President João Luiz Fukunaga. The decision includes sending the case to the PF and the MPF. Rapporteur Walton Alencar criticized the fund’s governance and raised suspicions about Fukunaga’s permanence on Vale’s council, with an annual salary of $ 2 million. The TCU will also investigate PREVI’s R $ 17.6 billion deficit, possible risks to fund sustainability and international travel.
Cassation
The House Ethics Council approved, by 13 votes to 5, the revocation of Deputy Glauber Braga (PSOL-RJ), accused of assaulting a MBL militant. Glauber began a hunger strike and promised to stay in Congress until the end of the process. He claims to be the target of an articulation led by Arthur Lira (PP-AL). The decision still needs to go through the CCJ and the plenary. The case provoked tension between parliamentarians and mobilization of supporters. It is the second request for cassation approved in the current legislature, after the case of Chiquinho Brazão, arrested for the death of Marielle Franco.
15 days
STF Minister Luiz Fux gave 15 days to Deputy Gustavo Gayer (PL-GO) to speak out about accusations of injury and defamation against Gleisi Hoffmann. The criminal complaint was filed by Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ), the minister’s boyfriend. Gayer said Lula “offered Gleisi as a pimp” in political negotiation. He also provoked Lindbergh and hinted at a “Talsal” with David Alcolumbre. The defense claims attempt to disqualify Gleisi as a woman and authority. If the complaint is accepted, Gayer will respond criminally. The case is still in the preliminary phase in the STF.
Clarification
The Minister of Culture, Margareth Menezes, was invited to provide clarifications to the Chamber about shows made with public money during Carnival and allegations of equipment in the National Program of Culture Committees. The requirements, presented by Luciano Zucco (PL-RS), were transformed into an invitation, with an audience scheduled for the 16th. Menezes received R $ 640 thousand for presentations made on the holidays, hired by the municipalities of Salvador and Fortaleza. The Ministry of Culture denies irregularities and says that there was no use of federal funds.
PT Presidency
Deputy Rui Falcão (PT-SP) announced, on Wednesday (9), his candidacy for the national presidency of the PT. With the support of 19 of the 66 deputies of the acronym, he positions himself as opposed to Lula’s favorite, former mayor Edinho Silva. Falcão, who has already chaired the party, says he seeks to unite leftist currents and “reconnect the PT with its foundations.” He denies confrontation with Lula and says he wants a more combative party. The candidacy will be launched on the 14th, in São Paulo. The PT’s internal election takes place in July, after the departure of Gleisi Hoffmann from the presidency.
(With Reuters, Estadão and Agência Brasil)