Itaú has reviewed its estimate for inflation this year and sees low bias for economic growth amid the high uncertainties in the global scenario with the United States Trade War.
The bank now projects 5.5% inflation this year, of 5.7% before, in a review that incorporates the expectation of cutting gasoline prices in refineries and the effects of the drop in metal commodity prices on industrial goods inflation.
“The risks remain asymmetrical, with low bias-a reflection of a possible fall in oil prices and metal commodities if global slowdown is more intense-while the risks of discharge are concentrated in domestic prices of agricultural commodities, given the increase in exports resulting from the United States and China war,” Itaú explained in analysis released on Wednesday.
For 2026, the projection for IPCA discharge was also reduced, to 4.4% of 4.5%, reflecting lower inflationary inertia.
GDP
Regarding the economy, the bank maintained the estimated GDP growth by 2025 by 2.2%, but with low bias. For 2026 the projection was maintained by 1.5%, with risks considered balanced.
“The retreat of the projection of global GDP and commodity prices was offset by the positive effect of the new private payroll loans. With this, despite the maintenance of the projection, we highlight the low bias, given the high risk of slowdown in world activity,” he explained.
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Itaú also estimates GDP growth in the first quarter of 1.6% over the previous three months, highlighting the resilience of the economy and good performance of the agricultural sector, but with positive growth in all sectors.
“The trade war and its impact on global growth corroborates our expectation of clearer slowdown in the second half of the year,” said Itaú.
Exchange and Selic
Regarding the exchange rate, the bank maintained the projection that the dollar will be R $ 5.75 in 2025 and 2026, citing “the significant uncertainty in relation to the global scenario.”
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Itaú also maintained the projection that the basic interest rate of Selic will end this year at 15.25%, after two 0.5 percentage points in the next two Central Bank meetings.
“But with less conviction about the second (upward) – whose implementation depends on the evolution of the international scenario and its impact on the exchange rate and commodity prices,” he warned.
For Itaú, Brazil faces two main channels of impact on the high uncertainty of the global scenario with commercial tariffs at the center of discussions.
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“The direct channel, via commerce, tends to be limited, given the reduced degree of commercial opening of the Brazilian economy,” he said. “The indirect channel, via global slowdown, drop in commodity prices and financial flows in a risk aversion environment, which may be more relevant.”
“Our base scenario considers some degree of external relief, with negotiation of tariffs, but we see relevant risks of climbing the trade war, with retaliation and consequent global recession, which leads us to adopt a cautious posture in projections,” he added.