The Commercial War waged by the United States against China must deepen regional economic imbalances in Brazil. According to a Nemea-Cedeplar study of UFMG, while the Midwest and Rio Grande do Sul would benefit from the appreciation of soy, industrial states such as São Paulo and Minas Gerais would accumulate billionaire losses.
The figures presented reveal an unequal scenario even with projection of a marginal gain in the Bruno Domestic Product (GDP), 0.01%.
According to the researchers, São Paulo would have a retraction of about R $ 4 billion in GDP, and Minas Gerais would lose R $ 1.16 billion. The Southeast States, with the highest exposure to industry and imports, concentrate the negative effects of the tariff dispute that began in April 2025, which involves up to 145% of the US and 125% by China.
At the other end, the Midwest and Rio Grande do Sul would be favored by a 28.1% increase in oilseed exports, with direct reflection in agricultural production, which would grow $ 5.5 billion. The industry, in turn, would fall from $ 8.9 billion in production and $ 6.4 billion in exports.
Despite the slight advance of Brazilian GDP, the sectoral impact is negative in most segments. Transport equipment, ferrous metals, meat and dairy would record the largest production declines. The results indicate that the country tends to gain in specific niches while losing competitiveness in higher -added industrial sectors.
The disclosure of the study, originally published on Sunday (13), occurs on the same day as AMcham Brasil announced that the trading current between Brazil and the United States reached a historic record in the first quarter of 2025, totaling US $ 20 billion. Even with the imposition of tariffs by the US, bilateral trade grew 6.6% compared to 2024. The balance, however, was deficient to Brazil by US $ 654 million.
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Overall
Also according to the UFMG study, world GDP could fall 0.25% due to tariff war, representing US $ 205 billion. The strongest impact, however, should be felt in international trade, with a retreat of 2.38%, or about $ 500 billion.
In the United States, the estimated impact is 0.7% in GDP. China would have a retraction of 0.6%. Brazil, on the other hand, would have marginal growth of 0.01%, driven by agricultural exports and fall in import prices.