The 10% rate on Brazilian products announced last week by the United States government has closed the possibility of ethanol exports to Americans, who were already recording low volumes historically, evaluated the consultancy Datagro under analysis on Monday.
Earlier, the US applied a 2.5% tariff over Brazilian ethanol, which can be readjusted to 10% or added to 12.5%, commented the consultancy in a report.
“Regardless, for both cases, the US definitely closed the import window,” Datagro said.
Brazilian exports in the last year were lower than in past years. The US imported 330 million liters in 2024, or 16.4% of the total exported by Brazil for all destinations.
The volume exported to the US last year was below 1% of Brazil’s total production by 2024/25, recalled Datagro.
If tariffs make exports unfeasible to the US, they can open other markets if countries affected by tariffs resolve to react by imposing restrictions on US product.
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“Brazilian ethanol can also benefit from the foreign market. It is also worth remembering that the US exported a record volume of 7.4 billion liters of ethanol in 2024, with Canada, United Kingdom, India, Colombia, South Korea and European Union among the main destinations,” said Datagro.
“If these countries decide to retaliate the US through the ethanol market, an important range for Brazilian fuel opens,” he added.