The announcement of new US tariffs moved markets this past week, raising fears about a possible global recession. President Donald Trump has established a universal rate of 10%, which directly impacts Chinese imports, now subject to a total taxation of 54%.
The main expected effect is an increase in American inflation in the short term, as well as a slowdown in economic activity, enhanced by a harsh winter in the northern hemisphere. Check out the report.
Cascade Effect: Impacts on Brazil
The trade war can benefit Brazilian commodities exporters, as China can divert its US demand to Brazil, as occurred between 2018 and 2020.
However, the 10% rate on all imports can damage sectors that sell directly to the US. For investors, companies with US production, inflation protection and grain exporters are highlighted in this scenario.
Growth and Reforms: Brazil in the opposite direction?
While the US faces uncertainties, the Brazilian economy continues to show signs of robustness.
Income tax reform arrived at Congress, and GDP growth projections were reviewed up: 2.0% to 2.3% in 2025 and 1.0% to 1.5% in 2026.
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XP maintains its view that Selic can rise up to 15.50% in the face of inflationary persistence.
Will the Rally of the Brazilian Scholarship continue?
March was the best month for Brazilian actions since August 2024, while US markets faced turbulence.
Data point out strong capital entry into emerging markets, which can support the local rally. In the current scenario, high inflation and high interest rates, companies with quality profile and low risk tend to stand out.
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Check out the full XP report to find out how to position yourself.
IR 2025: Pre-named statement is now available
Since Tuesday (1st), the complete statement of income tax 2025 can be accessed by taxpayers with Gov.br of silver or gold level, as reported by the IRS.
More than half of the statements sent this year are expected to use this tool. In addition to the income tax generator program, the statement can also be made by mobile phone and the Virtual Taxpayer Service Center (E-CAC). Have you sent yours? Check out the rules and the calendar here.
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- Learn the rules and see the calendar here.
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