Neerja Chaudhary’s Column – The Stage has been set for the upcoming assembly Elections | Neerja Chaudhary’s column: Bisat has been laid for the upcoming assembly elections

Neerja Chaudhary Senior Political Comments

A doctor, who kept a close watch on political movements, asked me, ‘How do you see’ AAP ‘victory in the Gujarat by -election?’ They were confused. In 2022, this seat was won by ‘AAP’, but MLA Bhupendra Bhayani joined BJP. Gujarat has elections in 2027 and the BJP would not want to slip its land here.

Even though ‘AAP’ has won the by -election, but the bad days of the party have been going on since losing Delhi. Arvind Kejriwal is seeing more in Punjab than Delhi. ‘AAP’ is now removing itself from the India alliance and openly criticizes the Congress.

With this strategy, the party probably wants to show that in states like Gujarat, now the main contender is not the Congress, but it is not the Congress. In the 2022 elections, it also caused a lot of damage to the Congress, due to which the BJP managed to win 156 seats. Whereas in 2017, the Congress reached close to forming the government.

If the BJP allows ‘AAP’ to emerge a little, then it will be a profitable deal for it. This will distribute anti-incumbency votes in 2027 and the path of Congress will be difficult. Many people believe that the BJP in Gujarat will stop ‘AAP’ on 25 seats.

In Gujarat Congress, confusion about the state leadership and lack of clear ideology is more confusing. Congress President Shakti Singh Gohil has resigned by taking moral responsibility for defeat in two seats of the by -election. Out of these seats, Visavadar ‘AAP’ won, while the BJP has retained possession.

Gohil’s resignation on the defeat of the by -election in just two seats is a little shocked. The party is also confused about which ideology it should stand. Traditional ways should be arranged in the traditional manner or being adopted under the leadership of Rahul.

In general, the results of the by -election do not show any correct picture and almost go in favor of the ruling party. But there have also been some by -elections that changed the direction of politics. For example, Vishwanath Pratap Singh won against the Congress from Allahabad seat in 1988 and became Prime Minister in 1989.

He removed Rajiv Gandhi from the chair. The second election was by Rajiv Gandhi itself. He fought from Amethi in 1981 after the death of Sanjay Gandhi. Rajiv’s candidature in the election was almost announced that he is now going to be Indira Gandhi’s political successor. And this happened, he became Prime Minister in 1984.

The results of the by -elections in Gujarat’s Visavadar and Kadi, Ludhiana West in Punjab, Kaliganj in Bengal and Nilambur seats in Kerala indicate which political winds are flowing in these states. Elections in Bengal and Kerala are scheduled to be held next year and in Punjab and Gujarat in 2027. Mamta Banerjee has shown her strong hold by winning the Kaliganj seat again by a margin of 50 thousand votes. Many leaders in the BJP also believe that she can maintain her power in the 2026 elections.

‘AAP’ has also hit many targets with one arrow by retaining the winning of Ludhiana West seat in Punjab. It has increased the strength of Bhagwant Mann as Chief Minister, on the other hand, the Congress, which is considered to be the main rival in the state, has also given a big blow. ‘AAP’ candidate and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora has won a seat in the upper house.

For this, Kejriwal was considered a possible name, but he himself has refused to go to Rajya Sabha. Now Manish Sisodia or any other leader of Punjab can be selected for the Rajya Sabha.

The BJP would also like that in Punjab, instead of Congress, ‘AAP’ government should continue. Apart from Kerala, Punjab is the second state where the public is visible towards the Congress. The Congress won 7 out of 13 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections there.

After grabbing the seat from the Left Front in a close fight on the Nilambur seat of Kerala, the Congress feels that the issue of Shashi Tharoor will not be troubled for it. Tharoor did not even campaign for the party.

After the meeting of Tharoor with the Prime Minister, there was speculation that Tharoor could be replaced in place of External Affairs Minister Jaishankar under the cabinet reshuffle, although the possibilities of this happening are very weak. The results of the by -elections in Gujarat, Punjab, West Bengal and Kerala indicate how the political winds are flowing in these states. Elections in Bengal and Kerala are scheduled to be held next year and in Punjab and Gujarat in 2027. (These are the writer’s own views)